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More ASEAN winners than losers in an escalating trade war

CIMB says there are more winners than losers in ASEAN – among Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand (MIST) – in the escalating trade war between US and China.
Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are particularly well placed to benefit from the displacement of demand for product categories in which it competes with China and US. These include electronics and electrical (E&E), machinery, chemicals, aircraft parts, rubber tyres and medical equipment.


However, some sectors like TVs, PCs and hard-disk drives will face disruptions in the supply chain for intermediate and capital goods that it exports directly or via other countries to China and eventually destined for the US.
Among MIST, Indonesia is relatively insulated from US-China trade tensions due to its low exposure to E&E and machinery exports.
Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia are well placed to take advantage of China’s proposed tariff on soybean imports from the US as the two largest exporters of palm oil, which is a substitute for edible oil.
Press-release at The Edge Singapore official web-site