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Kazakhstan: Staff Concluding Statement of an IMF Staff Visit

On 28 November 2018, the IMF staff issued a concluding statement describes the preliminary findings at the end of an official staff visit in Kazakhstan. The IMF staff team visited Kazakhstan during November 6-14, 2018 to review developments, prospects, and policies. Discussions focused on the outlook and risks, monetary policy and operations, the financial sector, budget execution, the 2019 budget, the fiscal framework, and structural reforms. The team thanks the authorities and other counterparts for excellent cooperation and productive discussions.
According to the document, an economic growth in the country was strong in the first half of 2018 at 4.2 percent, led by manufacturing, oil, and a recovery of credit growth. With base effects from high growth in late 2017, the team forecasts growth of 3.7 percent in 2018, and as oil production gains moderate, 3.1 percent in 2019. Inflation has come down to 5.3 percent in October. Stronger exports, especially oil, have supported improvement of the current account. For the medium term, the team projects a pickup of non-oil growth to 4 percent, reflecting structural reforms and financial sector repair. Risks are from lower commodity prices, geopolitical and trade tensions affecting major trading partners, and possible gaps in implementation of reforms.